Politics

For the past eleven months, Hezbollah, the pro-Iranian militia, has been fighting Israel in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza. While neither Hezbollah nor Israel appears to seek an all-out war, the situation could spiral out of control. On the ground, the risk of escalation is very real. Washington and Paris have decided to “coordinate closely” concerning Lebanon to avoid such an escalation.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah continues to expand its influence. In addition to the financial support it receives from Iran (several hundred million dollars yearly according to the U.S.), the militia receives donations from the Lebanese Shia diaspora and profits from both its legal and illegal (drug trafficking) businesses. Since the 2000s, Hezbollah has developed an integrated economy organized around a bank (al-Qard al-Hassan), powerful charities, and the al-Sajjad network of local supermarkets, offering discounts on basic goods. These economic structures insulate the southern region from the rest of Lebanon, and now, protect it from the effects of the national economic crisis.

Hezbollah has adopted a wait-and-see attitude. With patience it takes its time, counting on the slow disintegration of the country, weakened by double-digit inflation.

Lebanon has been governed by a caretaker cabinet since Prime Minister Hassan Diab resigned in August 2020 amid protests demanding accountability for the Beirut blast, when a stockpile of highly explosive ammonium nitrate was stored improperly at Lebanon’s most vital port. Michel Aoun, the Lebanese president at the time, accepted the resignation of the government and the Prime Minister and asked the government to stay on in a caretaker capacity until a new cabinet was formed.

On 10 September 2021, Mikati was able to form a government of 24 members after long negotiations with President Aoun, and the various political parties. When he took office, Lebanon was in the grip of a very serious economic crisis: the collapse of the national currency, galloping inflation (the cost of food had jumped by 700% in the previous two years), massive layoffs, a poverty rate of 78% according to the UN, frequent power cuts, fuel shortages, etc. Mikati is depending on the solidarity of the Arab world to help the country out of its crisis.

Mikati has been backing the Shiite groups, Hezbollah and Amal, but faces resistance from Christian lawmakers. Mikati himself does not represent a political party.

Najib Mikati, a Lebanese politician and businessman, has served as the Prime Minister of Lebanon since September 2021. Mikati said after his nomination that his priority would be to implement a French-backed reform plan that would unlock much-needed foreign financial aid.

Different sectarian groups are operating in Lebanon. Lebanese politics is based on a power-sharing system among these groups, including Hezbollah. Hezbollah, a Shia Muslim organization that emerged in the 1980s, has by now near total control over its own community, which it also represents in parliament. Dissenting Shia voices against Hezbollah have all but disappeared following the assassination of a Shia public intellectual and vocal Hezbollah critic, Lokman Slim, in 2021. Supporters of Hezbollah had previously threatened Slim’s life.

The leaders of Lebanon’s two major communities, the Sunni Muslims and the Christians, and those of the smaller but politically powerful Druze community, have issued statements urging caution and restraint. Yet, some Sunni and Christian groups in particular are sympathetic to Hezbollah.

Unlike the secular Sunni Muslim Lebanese, who call for restraint, religious Sunni Islamist groups are now siding with Hezbollah against Israel since the start of the Gazan war and some have even gotten closer to the organization over the past nine months.

In the past, many Sunni Islamists in Lebanon were against Hezbollah after an intense brief burst of violence in 2008, when Hezbollah attacked Sunni supporters of the then-Lebanese government.

Another Sunni group is the Lebanese branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, whose Al-Fajr forces, however symbolic and limited, have participated in the hostilities against Israel in southern Lebanon alongside Hezbollah since late October 2023, and even lost seven of their fighters in May of 2024.

Lebanese Christians are divided into three political parties, and so is their position towards Hezbollah: the Kataeb and the Lebanese Forces (LF) on the anti-Hezbollah side, and on the other side the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) which has broadly supported the Shia Hezbollah party since 2006.

In recent months, the leaders of both the LF and Kataeb have opposed Hezbollah’s war of attrition against Israel which they claim is provoking Israel to attack and devastate Lebanon. However, they are powerless against Hezbollah. Nevertheless, they complain that Hezbollah is acting and making decisions in the name of all Lebanese citizens.

Two other important Christian groups are the Patriarch of the Maronite church, Bechara Boutros Rai, and a rightwing private militia in eastern Beirut called Jnoud al-Rab (Soldiers of God).

Jnoud al-Rab claims that Hezbollah’s actions are endangering the country and Lebanon’s Christian community. In January 2024, the group hijacked flight screens at Beirut airport and displayed a message warning Hezbollah against engaging in war with Israel.

Since November 2023, Patriarch Rai has regularly issued statements against Hezbollah’s involvement in the Gaza war and has urged officials of the need to protect Lebanon.

In June 2024, he described Hezbollah’s activities in the south as acts of terrorism, which caused the Shia religious leadership to boycott the Patriarchate’s June spiritual summit.

As for the FPM party that has been favorable to Hezbollah, the relationship has become increasingly strained since October 2022, when the then president Michel Aoun’s term came to an end and Hezbollah refused to support EPM’s leading candidate as the new president and Aoun’s son-in-law, Gibran Bassil.

In April 2024, Bassil came around and declared that the FPM supports “the Resistance” (Hezbollah’s adopted name), but “rejects Hezbollah’s position to participate in the Gaza war without internal national consensus”.

Druze

The leading Druze politician, Walid Jumblatt, is the weathervane of Lebanese politics. Despite being retired, he remains an important voice for the Druze (who constitute around 5% of the Lebanese population).

In October, he called on Hezbollah “not to be dragged into the war”. He also took to social media asking Hezbollah not to participate in the war.

However, he clearly stated at the beginning of the conflict that he would side with Hezbollah should Israel attack Lebanon. And, since then, Jumblatt has noted that “the rules of engagement have changed”.

Lebanon’s major communities have largely been consistent in urging restraint and would prefer to see Hezbollah avoid a war with Israel. Should war break out, however, the sects of Lebanon will probably all rally around Hezbollah, as was the case in 2006.

History of Wars Between Israel and Lebanon

Since the end of the Six Day War, Palestinian terrorist militant groups have initiated attacks from south Lebanon against Israel, and even against Lebanese Christian militias inside Lebanon in the mid-1970s. In reprisal, the IDF, Israeli Defense Force have attacked in different operations, the most notable of which was the Litani Operation in 1978.

In 1975, the Lebanese civil war broke out, which lasted until 1990. With its own army operating freely in Lebanon, the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) had created a state within a state in south Lebanon. By then, more than 300,000 Palestinians lived in Lebanon. Lebanon’s Muslims and leftists who supported the PLO sought more political power. The Christians, seeking to maintain their political dominance, opposed the PLO. The factions fought fiercely through early 1976, and Lebanon became divided, with the Christians in power in the north and the Muslims in the south.

Israel helped the Christian Maronite militias by supplying them with arms, tanks, and military advisers. Initially, Syria, fearing loss of commercial access to the port of Beirut, supported the Maronites who had the majority in the government. Later, however, Syria switched sides by supporting the Palestinians instead.

In 1982 the Israeli army entered southern Lebanon with the goal of destroying the Palestinian guerrilla bases. The battle resulted in the expulsion of the PLO from Lebanese territory and their relocation to Tunisia.

In 1989, Christian leader Gen. Michel Aoun attempted to drive Syria out of Lebanon but was defeated and the Arab League mediated a peace deal. Aoun’s removal from power in October 1990 marked the end of the civil war and eliminated one of the major obstacles to the implementation of the 1989 peace accord.

Following the PLO’s expulsion from Lebanon, the Israeli military and Lebanese Christian militias began fighting the growing Iran proxy Shia Muslim terrorist group, Hezbollah, in south Lebanon, marking the beginning of the ongoing fighting between Hezbollah and Israel.