What just happened? Who’s in charge? How can this end?
The outcome of the September 17, 2019 election:
The election results were that the Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) party, headed by Benny Gantz won 33 out of 120 parliamentary seats; Netanyahu’s Likud party won 32. However, in the bloc of supporters, Likud had 55 party members, mainly the religious and right-wing, and Blue and White had 54, mainly center and left parties, including the Joint Arab List party. Israel’s Joint Arab List party announced its endorsement of Gantz’s party.
In between the two major parties and their blocs is Liberman’s Israel Beytenu (Israel our home) party with 8 members. He supports neither Netanyahu or Gantz. He again likely to be kingmaker with the power to send the country into yet another round of elections.
“The picture is clear. There is only one option and it’s a broad liberal unity government,” he insisted, referring to a potential coalition composed of his Yisrael Beiteinu, Likud, and Blue and White. He doesn’t care who would be prime minister first. “They can flip a coin for all I care.”
Who is Liberman?
Liberman, born in the Former Soviet Union, was previously a member of the Likud Party until 1999 when he left to form his own far-right Yisrael Beytenu (Israel our home) party, appealing to fellow Russian-speakers with his secularist agenda and tough talk against Palestinians.
Liberman served in several Israeli cabinets, most recently as Netanyahu’s defense minister. He resigned last year because Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire with Hamas after a massive attack from Gaza which was in his opinion “surrendering to terror.” Liberman’s pull-out toppled the government and forced an early election in April this year, in which Liberman’s party gained five seats. Even though he recommended Netanyahu’s Likud party and Netanyahu to be the one to form a government in that election, in the negotiations he refused to join the coalition because he didn’t get all his demands, mainly anti-religious legislations.
Liberman’s party gained 8 seats in this election.
Liberman is now promoting a national unity government that would include his party.
After the president gave Netanyahu the mandate to form a government, Liberman was invited by Netanyahu to a meeting. He still insists that there be a unity coalition with both Likud and Blue and White.
[See Composition of the Israeli Electorate]
Who is the President of the State of Israel?
The Nassi (President) is in the office of the presidency which is above and beyond party politics. The President is elected by Knesset (parliament) members for a single term of seven years.
Presidential duties, which are mostly ceremonial and formal, include among other things opening the first session of a new Knesset; nominating a prime minister after national elections to form a new government; accepting the credentials of foreign envoys; signing treaties and laws adopted by the Knesset, and; pardoning prisoners.
Current Israeli President Reuven Rivlin gave Benyamin Netanyahu the mandate to form a new government after Netanyahu received pledges of support from 55 ministers out of 120 parliament members. Benny Gantz, leading the other large party Kahol Lavan (blue and white), received 54 recommendations including 10 of the Arab members. Neither Netanyahu’s Likud party nor Kahol Lavan has a majority of at least 61 Knesset seats needed to form a coalition.
Should Netanyahu be unable to get a majority on his side, he returns the mandate to the President who would then most likely give Gantz the task of attempting to form a coalition.
After Netanyahu received the mandate to form a government, he called for a unity government with Kahol Lavan, adding that “national reconciliation” was needed in light of threats from Iran and the unveiling of US President Donald Trump’s “deal of the century” plan for peace in the Middle East. Gantz, however, said he would not join a government led by a Prime Minister facing possible indictment on corruption allegations. Another issue is who will be the first to serve as Prime Minister in the rotation government. Blue and White officials say Netanyahu must deal with his legal issues first and allow Gantz to lead initially. Gantz also insists that Netanyahu join only with his Likud party and not his entire bloc of the right and religious parties.
Meanwhile, the Joint Arab List party has announced its endorsement of Gantz’s party. By supporting the Blue and White leader, the Arab bloc broke with its own precedent of withholding support for either of the top Israeli candidates they consider Zionists since bringing down Netanyahu was its primary objective. “We want to bring an end to the era of Netanyahu, so we recommend that Benny Gantz be the one to form the next government,” said party head Ayman Odeh. By joining together to one Arab Joint List, gained 13 seats in this election, making it the third largest party in the Knesset . Netanyahu came against the Arab party’s support for Gantz, claiming their main leaders are anti-Zionists and suppor Palestinian terrorists. He said Israelis were now faced with two choices: “a minority government that leans on those that reject Israel as a Jewish, democratic state” or a “broad national government” composed of his and Gantz’s parties.
So, What Might Actually Happen Next?
Most heads of parties have made promises to their voters that they will not be able to keep; each one will have to make compromises if they want to avoid another election. The election results seem to indicate the only option is a unity coalition government led by Likud and Blue and White. The political reality requires the entire right-wing bloc to sit together on one side of the coalition, while Blue and White brings in parties from the Left that will contribute to a broad, inclusive government. This, on its face, seems unlikely as Blue and White received the votes it did based upon the promise it would not join a government with the religious parties in participation.
As compromises, Netanyahu will have to share power as Prime Minister in rotation and Gantz will have to join a government that includes Netanyahu, even though he promised not to do so. He will have to accept Netanyahu’s natural partners like the religious and the far right parties which is a violation of his promise to have a secular (no religious) government.
Due to the results of the election, there was a struggle over who would be first or second to assemble a government. If the first candidate fails, it will be the second candidate’s turn to attempt to form a government.
Initially, Gantz wanted to be the first candidate but was advised against it for tactical reasons. If Netanyahu goes first and fails to form a government, and with the threat of a third election, Gantz can appeal to Likud members to defect to his side. Thereby Gantz can lead a government with Likud but without Netanyahu. For that reason he had the Joint Arab List party give up 3 seats leaving only 10 to recommend him, making his bloc less than Netanyahu’s. Therefore, President Rivlin gave Netanyahu the initial mandate to form a government.
Should Gantz also try and fail, it doesn’t mean there is automatically another election. The law allows another 21 days for any of the candidates, even those who failed (Netanyahu in this case) to form a coalition of at least 61 MKs and swear in a new government.
In this case, Gantz may have to compromise and agree to a united coalition with Netanyahu and his religious affiliates.
Another possibility (unlikely) is that Gantz fails to hold onto his allies, either from Blue and White or the other left-wing parties, and Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister with a coalition of right-wing and religious parties, including elements from the Left.
A further possibility, is Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman concedes to joining a Netanyahu government, along with his religious political partners, who will also have to make compromises in Liberman’s direction. Such a government–and the most desirable–could potentially be the most stable since Liberman would re-join the Right, which was his natural place until he departed resulting in the last election. Knowing his strong and stubborn personality, it will take a miracle for this to happen.
There is the always the possibility that Israel will be required to hold a third election. We all pray that it won’t happen.